Advancements in multi-rupture time-dependent seismic hazard modeling, including fault interaction

Several recent earthquake events (e.g., 2008 moment-magnitude (MW) 8.0 Wenchuan, China; 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand; 2019 6.4–7.1 Ridgecrest sequence, USA) have emphasized the need to explicitly account for fault sources in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Fault-based PSHA currently involves a number of significant but necessary modeling assumptions that mainly relate segmentation, multi-segment event occurrence, long-term interaction, and time-dependent/independent recurrence. Each these issues is typically investigated isolation, neglecting implications their dependencies. This study offers review current literature on fault-based PSHA, unifying state-of-the-art advances field within single harmonized framework. The framework specifically incorporates some underlying methodologies latest Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3; Field et al., 2014), providing comprehensive means relaxing accounting ruptures standardized way, interpreting available data slip rates paleoseismic data) consistently, inferring time-dependent probabilities mainshock occurrence. proposed also accounts fault-interaction triggering between major known faults, using approach outlined by Mignan al. (2016) Toda (1998). A simple case established demonstrate framework's capabilities limitations, involving holistic investigation aforementioned assumptions' effect estimates. main findings this are (1) ground-motion amplitude estimates can change significantly (for certain return periods) depending segmentation used strict or relaxed excluding ruptures); (2) considering an ensemble faults with occurrence model changes shape curve respect time-independent assumption; (3) largest contribution differ cases; (4) interaction may those obtained classic which neglected). provides clear leveraging campaigns rate collections potentially better constrain